Sydney, 2011–2021: apartments from the city to Parramatta, family houses on the western edge

Sydney remained Australia's largest city between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, though it grew more slowly than Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth and grew in two distinct ways. More than half of the homes it added were apartments, concentrated in a ring running from the city through Parramatta and Ryde, while the western and south-western fringe filled with larger family households in separate houses. Its household incomes are the highest of the five largest capitals, and its housing costs take a larger share of those incomes than in any of the others.

The largest city, growing more slowly than its rivals

Sydney grew by 19% over the decade, from 4.39 million to 5.23 million residents, which is about 840,000 extra people. Melbourne grew by 23% and Brisbane and Perth by 22% each, so Sydney's lead over Melbourne narrowed from about 392,000 residents in 2011 to 314,000 in 2021. On Censible's projections Sydney reaches about 5.65 million in 2026 and 5.98 million in 2031, when it would still be about 130,000 residents larger than Melbourne.

Where that growth went matters more for planning than its total, because Sydney added people in two different kinds of place: apartment districts between the city and Parramatta, and new estates of family houses on the city's edge.

Apartments from the city to Parramatta

Flats and apartments rose from 26% to 31% of Sydney's occupied dwellings between 2011 and 2021, the highest share of any capital and about twice Melbourne's 16%. Of the roughly 307,000 extra occupied dwellings, about 169,000, or 55%, were apartments, against 16% of Melbourne's additions and 27% of Brisbane's. Much of the building was in the City and Inner South, Parramatta and Ryde, which held 19% of Sydney's residents in 2011 and took 24% of its growth, and 85% of the dwellings those three areas added were apartments.

In 2021, 49% of households in these areas rented, 41% of adults held a bachelor degree or higher against 33% across Sydney, and 52% of residents were born overseas. Their households averaged 2.5 people, their median age was 35 against 37 for the city, and 16% of residents were under 15 against 18%, so for retailers and service providers the demand these areas add is weighted towards smaller, younger and more often renting households, which suit different formats and ranges from those that work in the family suburbs on the fringe.

Families on the western edge

Blacktown, the South West, the Outer South West, and Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury held 25% of Sydney's residents in 2011 and took 39% of its growth, about 327,000 people. About 80% of their homes are separate houses, and in 2021 22% of their residents were under 15 against 18% across the city, households averaged 3.1 people against 2.7, and 55% of families were couples with children against 48%. Censible's projections add about 350,000 more residents to these four areas by 2031, which would be 46% of the city's projected growth, so demand for schools, childcare and family-sized homes is rising fastest a long way from the established centres of the east and north.

Who is moving in

China remains Sydney's largest overseas birthplace, at about 237,000 people or 4.75% of residents in 2021, while India grew fastest of the larger groups, from about 88,000 in 2011 to 187,000, or from 2.1% to 3.7% of residents. The Nepal-born population almost doubled between 2016 and 2021, from about 30,000 to 58,000, more than three times Melbourne's. The China-born share fell slightly over the same five years, from 4.95% to 4.75%, which is consistent with international students being outside Australia when the 2021 Census was taken, though the census on its own can't confirm the cause.

These groups have settled in different parts of the city. In the apartment areas between the city and Parramatta, 8.9% of residents were born in China and 9.7% use Mandarin at home, while on the western fringe 5.8% were born in India, 5.4% use Arabic at home and Punjabi rose from 0.9% to 2.1% of residents over the decade.

Established communities

Sydney's longer-established communities are larger than in the other capitals. Arabic is the second most common language used at home after Mandarin, at 4.4% of residents against 1.9% in Melbourne and under 1% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, and 1.2% of Sydneysiders were born in Lebanon. Across the city, 40% of residents were born overseas, the highest share of any capital, and 55% have both parents born overseas.

Highest incomes, highest housing costs

Sydney's median weekly household income rose 45% over the decade to $2,095, the highest of the five largest capitals and $176 a week above Melbourne's. The median rent rose 31% to $472 a week, faster than the median mortgage repayment, which rose 15% to $2,489 a month, and both are the highest of any capital.

Measured against income, the median mortgage repayment equals about 27% of the median household income, against 23–24% in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, and the median rent about 23% against 19–21%. The share of households renting rose from 32% to 36%, the highest of the five largest capitals, while the share owning outright fell from 31% to 28%. At the medians a Sydney household still keeps slightly more after housing costs in dollars than a Melbourne one, about $6,590 a month against $6,290, so the larger difference between the cities is in the cost of buying, which is consistent with the shift towards renting and apartments.

A more professional workforce

In 2021, 30% of employed Sydneysiders worked as professionals, against 27% in Melbourne and 24–25% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, and 33% of adults held a bachelor degree or higher, level with Melbourne and up from 24% in 2011. The 2021 figures for work were collected during lockdown in Sydney, which affected who was counted as employed. If the decade's trend continues, about 45% of adult Sydneysiders would hold a degree by 2031.

What to watch in the 2026 Census

Four questions will decide whether this picture holds. Did apartments keep their share of new homes after 2021? Did the China-born population and the inner-city rental market recover as international students returned? Did the western fringe keep taking close to two-fifths of the city's growth? And did the rise in rents after 2021 widen the gap between Sydney's housing costs and its incomes? The first 2026 Census results arrive in June 2027.

Method

Figures are for Greater Sydney, which includes the Central Coast, and the other Greater Capital City Statistical Areas from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Censuses, carried onto the ABS's 2026 boundaries with ABS correspondences so each city is compared on the same ground. The apartment areas are the City and Inner South, Parramatta and Ryde SA4s, and the western fringe is the Blacktown, South West, Outer South West, and Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury SA4s. SA4s are the ABS's largest statistical areas within a city, usually with 100,000 to 500,000 residents each, and the figures for each group are calculated from summed counts. The share of added homes that were apartments compares counts of occupied private dwellings by type in 2011 and 2021. Population projections grow census counts with ABS estimates and Geoscience Australia projections, and the degree projection follows the recent trend. More on the method is on Data and sources.

Limitations

• The 2021 Census was taken during lockdown in Sydney with international borders closed, which lowered counts of international students and temporary residents, particularly in the inner city, and affected the employment and occupation figures.
• Dollar figures are nominal, and comparisons of housing costs with incomes use each city's medians rather than individual households' circumstances.
• Several of the areas used here, including Parramatta, Blacktown and the South West, had boundary changes between editions, so their 2011 and 2016 figures are estimates.
• The apartment figures count occupied dwellings, so homes that were empty on Census night, including new apartments not yet lived in, are left out.
• The census shows where people live and who they are but doesn't record why they moved, and statements about what the figures mean for businesses are interpretation.
• Figures for 2026 and 2031 are projections, and the 2026 ones will be replaced by census counts as the ABS releases the 2026 results from June 2027.