Darwin, 2011–2021: the fastest-growing capital to 2016 and the slowest after it

Darwin grew faster than any other capital between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses and more slowly than any of them between 2016 and 2021, when its population rose by 2.2%. Over those same five years its median rent fell by 11% and its median household income barely moved, after Darwin had the highest median income of the capitals in 2016. It's the youngest capital and has the largest share of renting households, and its shares of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents and of residents serving in the Defence Force are higher than in any other capital.

Fast growth to 2016, then the slowest of the capitals

Greater Darwin grew by 16% over the decade, from about 120,600 to 139,900 residents, which is about 19,300 extra people. Growth between 2011 and 2016 was 13.5%, the fastest of the eight capitals, ahead of Perth's 12.4% and Melbourne's 12.1%, and between 2016 and 2021 it was 2.2%, the slowest, behind Adelaide's 7.1% and against 9.3% across the eight combined, so 84% of the decade's growth came in its first half.

Censible's projections, which follow the ABS's population estimates to mid-2025, put Greater Darwin at about 149,800 residents in 2026 and 158,500 in 2031. That's growth of 7.1% between 2021 and 2026 against 9.7% across the eight combined, and 13.3% over the decade to 2031 against 16.4%, so on these projections Darwin grows faster than it did from 2016 to 2021 and more slowly than the capitals overall.

Half the growth in Palmerston

Palmerston, about 20 kilometres south-east of the city centre, grew from about 27,600 residents in 2011 to 37,200 in 2021, an increase of 35% and about 9,600 people, which is half the city's growth from 23% of its residents in 2011. Darwin City added about 4,200 people, 22% of the growth, while the Darwin Suburbs, which held 43% of the city's residents in 2011, added about 3,100 and took 16%. Litchfield, on the rural fringe, rose from about 18,600 residents to 23,500 between 2011 and 2016 and then fell to about 21,000 in 2021, the only part of the city to shrink.

Censible's projections give the Darwin Suburbs the largest share of the growth to 2031, about 38% or 7,100 people, with Palmerston taking 29% and Darwin City 18%, and every part of the city growing by between 12% and 15% over the decade.

The youngest capital

In 2021, 9.9% of Darwin's residents were aged 65 and over, the lowest share of the capitals against 15.4% across the eight combined, and 20.2% were under 15, the highest, ahead of Brisbane's 19.2%. The share aged 65 and over rose from 6.3% in 2011 and is projected to reach about 10.7% by 2031, against 17.9% across the capitals. Palmerston was younger still, with 25.2% of its residents under 15 and 6.4% aged 65 and over, while Darwin City had 13.7% under 15.

The most renters, and rents that fell after 2016

In 2021, 44.5% of Darwin's households rented, the highest share of the capitals against 36.4% in Sydney and 35.5% in Brisbane, and 17.5% owned their home outright, the lowest, against 26.2% in Brisbane. In Darwin City 62.7% of households rented and 59.8% of homes were flats or apartments, and across the city flats and apartments made up 25.0% of homes, second only to Sydney's 30.7%.

Darwin's median weekly rent rose from $380 in 2011 to $451 in 2016, level with Sydney's as the highest of the capitals, and then fell by 11% to $400 in 2021, the largest fall of any capital, with Perth's 4% the only other. It fell by 12% in Darwin City, 11% in Palmerston and 13% in the Darwin Suburbs. The median rent equalled 18.0% of the median household income in 2021, the lowest ratio of the capitals, and 21.4% of renting households paid 30% or more of their gross income in rent, also the lowest and down from 26.9% in 2011. Under the 30/40 rule, 16.1% of renting households were in rental stress, level with Canberra's 16.0% and against between 28% and 36% in the other six capitals, and the median mortgage repayment fell from $2,438 a month in 2016 to $2,126.

Censible's figures for 2026, which move rents forward with the CPI rents series and incomes with the ABS wage price index, put Darwin's median rent at about $500 a week and its median household income at about $2,628, which would raise rent to about 19% of income, and both remain projections until the 2026 Census results arrive.

Incomes that stopped rising after 2016

Darwin's median weekly household income rose by 22% between 2011 and 2016 to $2,208, the highest of the capitals that year, ahead of Canberra's $2,096 and Sydney's $1,768. Between 2016 and 2021 it rose by less than 1%, to $2,224, while Sydney's rose by 18.5%, Melbourne's by 23.5% and Canberra's by 14%, so Canberra passed it and Sydney closed most of the gap. In 2021, 31.7% of Darwin's households had an income of $3,000 or more a week, against 38.0% in Canberra and 31.9% in Sydney.

Who lives in Darwin

The share of Darwin's residents born overseas rose from 24.3% in 2011 to 28.9% in 2016 and 30.4% in 2021, a rise of 6.0 points that was the largest of the capitals, just ahead of Hobart's 5.9, though it remains below the 35.8% across the eight combined. The Philippines is the largest overseas birthplace, at 4.1% of residents who stated a birthplace in 2021, up from 2.7% in 2011 and the highest share of any capital, against 1.8% in Sydney. India followed at 3.0%, up from 1.3% in 2011, then England at 2.9% and Nepal at 2.0%, up from 0.8% in 2016, and the share of residents using a language other than English at home went from 17.8% to 26.1% over the decade.

Darwin City (38.9%) and the Darwin Suburbs (36.2%) had the largest shares born overseas in 2021, while Palmerston's rose from 16.7% in 2011 to 24.3% and Litchfield's stayed between 14% and 15%. In 2021, 10.4% of Darwin's residents were Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, against 4.5% in Hobart, 3.0% in Brisbane and under 2% in the other five capitals, and the share was 12.8% in Palmerston and 12.4% in Litchfield.

Work and qualifications

In 2021, 19.4% of Darwin's employed residents worked in public administration and safety, the ABS industry that includes government administration and defence, second to Canberra's 30.4% and against between 5.7% and 10.2% in the other six capitals, though down from 21.8% in 2011. The 2021 Census was the first to ask about service in the Australian Defence Force, and 3.5% of Darwin's residents aged 15 and over were serving, against 2.1% in Canberra and under 1% in each of the other capitals.

Darwin's participation rate of 69.7% was level with Canberra's as the highest of the capitals, and its unemployment rate of 4.0% was second lowest after Canberra's 3.8%. The share of adults with a bachelor degree or higher rose from 17.3% in 2011 to 26.0% in 2021, below the 30.9% across the eight capitals combined, and 22.1% of employed residents worked as professionals. The 2021 Census was taken during lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne, so Darwin's work figures compare more reliably with those of the other five capitals than with those two cities'. Projected on the decade's trend, about 36% of adults in Darwin would hold a degree by 2031.

What to watch in the 2026 Census

Four questions will decide whether this picture holds. Did Darwin's growth pick up after 2021, as Censible's projections expect? Did the Darwin Suburbs take the largest share of it, after a decade in which Palmerston took half? Did rents recover from their fall, and incomes start rising again? And did the Philippine-born and Nepal-born shares keep rising? The first 2026 Census results arrive in June 2027.

Method

Figures are for Greater Darwin and the other seven Greater Capital City Statistical Areas from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Censuses, carried onto the ABS's 2026 boundaries with ABS correspondences so each city is compared on the same ground. The areas named within the city, such as Palmerston and Litchfield, are the ABS's four Darwin SA3s. Figures for the eight capitals combined are calculated from summed counts. Birthplace shares are of residents who stated a birthplace, apartment and renting shares are of occupied private dwellings, and rent as a share of income compares the median rent with the median weekly household income. Housing stress figures count households one by one from the ABS's tables of household income by rent and by mortgage repayment. Population projections grow census counts with ABS estimates and Geoscience Australia projections, the 2026 rent and income figures are moved forward with the CPI rents series and the ABS wage price index, and the degree projection follows the recent trend. More on the method is on Data and sources.

Limitations

• Dollar figures are nominal, and comparisons of housing costs with incomes use each city's medians rather than individual households' circumstances.
• Housing stress uses the census's gross household income, which comes in bands and isn't equivalised for household size, so it isn't directly comparable with measures based on equivalised disposable income.
• Greater Darwin had boundary changes between editions, so its earlier figures are estimates.
• Figures for people born in England and Nepal start in 2016, so their change is measured over five years, and Defence Force service was first asked in 2021.
• Census counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people change with how many people identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, as well as with births, deaths and moves, so a change in their share between censuses isn't all population change.
• The 2021 Census was taken with international borders closed, which lowered counts of international students and temporary residents in every city.
• The census shows where people live and who they are but doesn't record why they moved, and statements about what the figures mean for businesses are interpretation.
• Figures for 2026 and 2031 are projections, and the 2026 ones will be replaced by census counts as the ABS releases the 2026 results from June 2027.