Canberra, 2011–2021: the fastest-growing capital, with half its growth in Gungahlin and the Molonglo Valley

Canberra grew faster than any other capital between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, by 27% against 21% across the eight combined, and more than half of that growth went to Gungahlin and the Molonglo Valley on the city's northern and western edges. Its households had the highest median income of the capitals in 2021 and its adults the largest share of degrees, though its income lead over Sydney narrowed over the decade, and 30.4% of its employed residents worked in public administration and safety, against 19.4% in Darwin and under 8% in the five largest capitals.

The fastest-growing capital

The Australian Capital Territory, which the ABS uses as Canberra's capital city region, grew by 27% over the decade, from about 356,600 to 453,700 residents, which is about 97,200 extra people. Growth between 2011 and 2016 was 11.3%, behind Darwin, Perth and Melbourne, and between 2016 and 2021 it was 14.3%, the fastest of the eight capitals and ahead of Brisbane's 11.2% and Hobart's 11.1%, against 9.3% across the eight combined, so 59% of the decade's growth came in its second half.

Censible's projections, which follow the ABS's population estimates to mid-2025, put Canberra at about 483,900 residents in 2026 and 510,700 in 2031. That's growth of 6.6% between 2021 and 2026, slower than every capital except Hobart and against 9.7% across the eight combined, and 12.5% over the decade to 2031 against 16.4%, which would make Canberra the third slowest-growing capital after Hobart and Adelaide.

Half the growth in Gungahlin and the Molonglo Valley

Gungahlin, on the city's northern edge, grew from about 47,300 residents in 2011 to 87,600 in 2021, an increase of 85% and about 40,300 people, which is 42% of the city's growth from 13% of its residents in 2011. The Molonglo Valley, west of the city centre, had almost no residents in 2011 and about 11,400 in 2021, another 12% of the growth. Belconnen and North Canberra each took about 14% of it, while Tuggeranong, which held 24% of the city's residents in 2011, added about 2,500 people and took 3% of the growth.

Censible's projections spread the growth to 2031 differently. North Canberra, the inner north around the city centre, Braddon and Dickson, takes about 28% of it and grows by about a quarter to 76,900 residents, Gungahlin takes 26% and the Molonglo Valley 17%, while Tuggeranong holds at about 89,000. Together the inner north and south and the Molonglo Valley take 54% of the projected growth, against Gungahlin's 26%.

Apartments in the inner north and south

Flats and apartments rose from 12.4% of Canberra's occupied homes in 2011 to 14.9% in 2016 and 19.3% in 2021, a rise of 6.9 points that was the largest of the capitals, ahead of Darwin's 5.1 and Sydney's 4.9, while separate houses fell from 72.9% to 63.2%. About 42% of the homes added over the decade were flats or apartments, against 55% in Sydney, 27% in Brisbane and 16% in Melbourne. The apartment share rose from 32.7% to 42.6% in North Canberra and from 35.0% to 47.6% in South Canberra, and the two areas together accounted for about 44% of the apartments added across the city. Gungahlin's share went from 3.8% to 13.0%, about a fifth of the added apartments, and 35.2% of the Molonglo Valley's homes were apartments in 2021.

The share of households renting barely moved, from 31.0% in 2011 to 30.9% in 2021, below Sydney's 36.4% and Brisbane's 35.5%, though it was 44.6% in North Canberra, where households averaged 2.18 people against 2.52 across the city.

Young families in the north and west, older residents in the south

In 2021, 13.6% of Canberra's residents were aged 65 and over, against 15.4% across the eight capitals combined and lower than every capital except Darwin, and on Censible's projections the share reaches about 15.1% by 2031 against 17.9%. The share under 15 was 18.3%, level with the combined figure. The northern and western growth areas were younger, with 23.2% of Gungahlin's residents under 15 and 7.1% aged 65 and over, households averaging 2.86 people, and 54.4% of families couples with children against 45.4% across the city, while the Molonglo Valley had 23.6% under 15 and 3.6% aged 65 and over.

In Tuggeranong, in the south, the share aged 65 and over doubled from 7.9% in 2011 to 15.5% in 2021 while its population grew by 3%, and Censible's projections take it to about 19.7% by 2031 with the population roughly unchanged. Weston Creek (20.9%), the Woden Valley (18.6%) and South Canberra (18.3%) already had higher shares in 2021, so the added demand for health and aged care falls mainly in the south of the city and the added demand for schools and family housing in the north and west.

Who is moving in

The share of Canberra's residents born overseas rose from 25.3% in 2011 to 28.0% in 2016 and 29.9% in 2021, a rise of 4.6 points that was the third largest of the capitals after Darwin's and Hobart's, which left it close to Darwin's 30.4% and below the 35.8% across the eight combined. India became the largest overseas birthplace, at 3.9% of residents who stated a birthplace in 2021, up from 1.7% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2016, when England (3.4%) and China (3.0%) were both ahead of it. In 2021 England was at 3.0% and China at 2.8%, the Nepal-born share had risen from 0.2% in 2016 to 1.3%, and the share of residents using a language other than English at home had gone from 18.9% in 2011 to 25.7%.

The change was largest in the newer suburbs. In Gungahlin, 38.5% of residents were born overseas in 2021, including 7.7% in India, up from 3.3% in 2011, and 4.7% in China, and in the Molonglo Valley 42.1% were born overseas and 10.5% in India. Tuggeranong (21.8%) and Weston Creek (23.4%), in the south, had the lowest shares born overseas.

The highest incomes, with a narrowing lead

Canberra's median weekly household income was $2,393 in 2021, the highest of the capitals, ahead of Darwin's $2,224 and Sydney's $2,095, and 38.0% of its households had an income of $3,000 or more a week against 31.9% in Sydney. Its lead narrowed over the decade, since the median rose by 25% from $1,921 in 2011 while Sydney's rose by 45% and Melbourne's by 44% and only Darwin's rose by less, so the gap with Sydney went from $474 a week to $298.

Canberra's median weekly rent was $392 in 2011, the highest of the capitals, and the same in 2016, when Sydney's and Darwin's had passed it at $451. It rose by 18% to $461 in 2021, second to Sydney's $472, and with the highest incomes that put the median rent at 19.3% of the median household income, against 22.5% in Sydney and 22.6% in Hobart. Counted household by household, 23.5% of renting households paid 30% or more of their gross income in rent, down from 27.5% in 2011 and lower than in every capital except Darwin (21.4%), and housing stress under the 30/40 rule, across renters and mortgage holders, was 8.1%, the lowest of the eight against 10.5% in Darwin and between 16% and 20% in the other six. The median mortgage repayment of $2,126 a month was almost unchanged from 2011, so it fell from about 26% of the median household income to about 21%.

Censible's figures for 2026, which move rents forward with the CPI rents series and incomes with the ABS wage price index, put Canberra's median rent at about $585 a week and its median household income at about $2,838, which would raise rent to about 21% of income, and both remain projections until the 2026 Census results arrive. The housing stress figures for 2026 hold the 2021 shares, so with rents rising faster than incomes since then they're likely to understate rental stress.

Work and qualifications

In 2021, 30.4% of Canberra's employed residents worked in public administration and safety, the ABS industry that covers government administration, defence, and public order and safety, against 19.4% in Darwin, 10.2% in Hobart and between 5.7% and 7.4% in the other five capitals. The share was 33.2% in 2011, so employment in the industry grew more slowly than the rest of Canberra's workforce over the decade.

Canberra also had the largest share of adults with a bachelor degree or higher, 43.0% in 2021 against 30.9% across the eight capitals combined, up from 34.0% in 2011, and the largest share of employed residents working as professionals, 32.2% against Sydney's 29.9%. Its unemployment rate of 3.8% was the lowest of the capitals, and its participation rate of 69.6% was level with Darwin's 69.7% as the highest. The 2021 Census was taken during lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne, so Canberra's work figures compare more reliably with those of the other five capitals than with those two cities'. Projected on the decade's trend, about 55% of adults in Canberra would hold a degree by 2031.

What to watch in the 2026 Census

Four questions will decide whether this picture holds. Did Canberra's growth slow after 2021, as Censible's projections expect, or keep the pace of 2016 to 2021? Did the inner north and south and the Molonglo Valley take over from Gungahlin as the main growth areas? Did the India-born share keep rising in the northern suburbs? And did household incomes keep their lead over Sydney's, or did the gap keep narrowing? The first 2026 Census results arrive in June 2027.

Method

Figures are for the Australian Capital Territory, which is Canberra's Greater Capital City Statistical Area, and the other seven capitals from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Censuses, carried onto the ABS's 2026 boundaries with ABS correspondences so each city is compared on the same ground. The areas named within the city, such as Gungahlin and North Canberra, are the ABS's Canberra SA3s. Figures for the eight capitals combined are calculated from summed counts. Birthplace shares are of residents who stated a birthplace, apartment shares are of occupied private dwellings, and rent as a share of income compares the median rent or monthly mortgage repayment with the median weekly household income. Housing stress figures count households one by one from the ABS's tables of household income by rent and by mortgage repayment. Population projections grow census counts with ABS estimates and Geoscience Australia projections, the 2026 rent and income figures are moved forward with the CPI rents series and the ABS wage price index, and the degree projection follows the recent trend. More on the method is on Data and sources.

Limitations

• Dollar figures are nominal, and comparisons of housing costs with incomes use each city's medians rather than individual households' circumstances.
• Housing stress uses the census's gross household income, which comes in bands and isn't equivalised for household size, so it isn't directly comparable with measures based on equivalised disposable income.
• Canberra's capital city region is the Australian Capital Territory, so it leaves out Queanbeyan-Palerang in New South Wales, which includes Queanbeyan and had about 63,300 residents in 2021.
• The Australian Capital Territory and several of its SA3s, including Belconnen, Tuggeranong and the Molonglo Valley, had boundary changes between editions, so their earlier figures are estimates.
• Figures for people born in England and Nepal start in 2016, so their change is measured over five years.
• The 2021 Census was taken with international borders closed, which lowered counts of international students and temporary residents in every city.
• The census shows where people live and who they are but doesn't record why they moved, and statements about what the figures mean for businesses are interpretation.
• Figures for 2026 and 2031 are projections, and the 2026 ones will be replaced by census counts as the ABS releases the 2026 results from June 2027.