Hobart, 2011–2021: most of its growth after 2016, and the largest rise in rents of any capital

Hobart grew more slowly than any other capital between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses and then, between 2016 and 2021, at the third-fastest rate of the eight, so 70% of its growth over the decade came in the second half. Its median rent rose by 35% over those five years, the largest rise of any capital, and in 2021 a larger share of its renting households paid 30% or more of their income in rent than in any other capital, Sydney included. It also has the oldest population of the capitals and, after 2016, the largest rise in the share of residents born overseas.

Most of the growth came after 2016

Greater Hobart grew by 17% over the decade, from about 211,700 to 247,100 residents, which is about 35,400 extra people. Growth between 2011 and 2016 was 5.0%, the slowest of the eight capitals, and between 2016 and 2021 it was 11.1%, level with Brisbane's 11.2% and behind only Canberra's 14.3%, against 9.3% across the eight combined. About 24,800 of the decade's extra residents were added in the second half, so a profile of Hobart built from the 2016 Census misses more than two-thirds of the decade's growth.

Censible's projections, which follow the ABS's population estimates to mid-2025, put Greater Hobart at about 252,700 residents in 2026 and 263,300 in 2031. That's growth of 2.2% between 2021 and 2026, the slowest of the capitals by a wide margin, with Canberra next at 6.6%, and about 7% over the decade to 2031 against 16% across the eight combined, so on these projections the pace of 2016 to 2021 doesn't continue.

Growth on the edges and the eastern shore

Brighton, which includes Bridgewater and Gagebrook on the city's northern edge, and Sorell – Dodges Ferry to the east each grew by about a quarter over the decade, to about 19,600 and 18,500 residents, and together they took 20% of the city's growth from 15% of its residents in 2011. Hobart – North East, which includes Bellerive and Rosny on the eastern shore, added about 9,500 residents, more than any other part of the city, and took 27% of the growth from 23% of the residents. The inner city and Hobart – North West, around Glenorchy, held almost half the city's residents in 2011 and took 37% of its growth.

Censible's projections give Brighton and Sorell – Dodges Ferry about 40% of the city's growth between 2021 and 2031, from 15% of its residents, and the North East another third, while Hobart – North West grows by less than 1% over the decade. The two outer areas house different people, with 22.3% of Brighton's residents under 15 in 2021 against 16.8% across the city and households averaging 2.61 people against 2.42, while in Sorell – Dodges Ferry 20.6% of residents were aged 65 and over, a share projected to reach about 26% by 2031, so the added demand for schools and family housing and the added demand for health and aged care fall in different parts of the city.

The oldest of the capitals

In 2021, 18.8% of Hobart's residents were aged 65 and over, up from 15.4% in 2011 and the highest share of the eight capitals, just above Adelaide's 18.6% and against 15.4% across the capitals combined. The share under 15 fell from 18.8% to 16.8% over the decade, and lone-person households made up 27.7% of households, level with Adelaide as the highest of the capitals. On Censible's projections the share aged 65 and over reaches about 20.3% in 2026 and 21.6% in 2031, which would keep Hobart ahead of Adelaide's projected 20.5% as the oldest capital.

The largest rise in rents

Hobart's median weekly rent was $234 in 2011 and $260 in 2016, the lowest of the capitals in both years. Between 2016 and 2021 it rose by 35% to $351, against 18% in Canberra, about 11% in Adelaide and Melbourne and falls in Perth and Darwin, which took Hobart past Adelaide's $316 and level with Perth's $352. The median weekly household income rose by 26% over the same five years to $1,556, level with Adelaide's $1,559 as the lowest of the capitals, so in 2021 the median rent equalled 22.6% of the median household income, the highest ratio of the eight and level with Sydney's 22.5%.

Counted household by household, 39.6% of Hobart's renting households paid 30% or more of their gross income in rent, ahead of Sydney's 37.9% and Adelaide's 34.7%. Under the 30/40 rule, which counts households in the bottom 40% of incomes paying 30% or more, 36.0% of renting households were in rental stress, again the highest of the capitals against 33.3% in Adelaide, and housing stress across renters and mortgage holders was 19.6%, also the highest. Owners were in a different position, since the median mortgage repayment of $1,512 a month was the lowest of the capitals, equal to about 22% of the median household income against about 32% in 2011, and 34.2% of households owned their home outright, the highest share of the eight.

Censible's figures for 2026, which move rents forward with the CPI rents series and incomes with the ABS wage price index, put Hobart's median rent at about $450 a week and its median household income at about $1,839, which would raise rent to about 24% of income, and both remain projections until the 2026 Census results arrive. The housing stress figures for 2026 hold the 2021 shares, so with rents rising faster than incomes since then they're likely to understate rental stress.

Who is moving in

The share of Hobart's residents born overseas rose from 13.9% in 2011 to 14.8% in 2016 and then to 19.8% in 2021, a rise of 5.0 points in five years when no other capital's share rose by more than 2 points, though it remains the lowest of the capitals against 28.5% in Brisbane and 40.5% in Sydney. England is still the largest overseas birthplace, at 3.4% of residents who stated a birthplace in 2021, followed by China at 2.3% and Nepal and India at 1.7% each. The Nepal-born share rose from 0.2% in 2016 and the India-born share from 0.6%, and the share of residents using a language other than English at home went from 8.1% to 13.4%.

The change was largest in Hobart – North West, around Glenorchy, where 3.9% of residents were born in Nepal and 3.2% in India in 2021, against 0.5% and 0.7% in 2016, and the share using another language at home almost doubled, from 9.0% to 17.6%. In Hobart Inner, 5.6% of residents were born in China and 21.6% used another language at home. The share born overseas was 6.8% in Brighton and 11.2% in Sorell – Dodges Ferry, so the two areas taking the largest share of the city's projected growth have had little of its migration.

Work and qualifications

The share of adults holding a bachelor degree or higher rose from 18.8% in 2011 to 21.2% in 2016 and 29.2% in 2021. The rise of 7.9 points between 2016 and 2021 was the largest of the capitals and took Hobart from among the lowest shares to the fourth highest, above Brisbane (26.9%), Perth (26.5%), Darwin (26.0%) and Adelaide (25.9%) and below Sydney and Melbourne (33%) and Canberra (43%). In 2021, 24.5% of employed residents worked as professionals, the unemployment rate was 6.2%, the highest of the capitals, and the participation rate was 61.5%, lower than in every capital except Sydney. The 2021 Census was taken during lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne, so Hobart's work figures compare more reliably with Adelaide's, Brisbane's and Perth's than with those two cities'. Projected on the decade's trend, about 40% of adults in Hobart would hold a degree by 2031.

What to watch in the 2026 Census

Four questions will decide whether this picture holds. Did Hobart's growth slow after 2021, as Censible's projections expect, or keep the pace of 2016 to 2021? Did Brighton and Sorell – Dodges Ferry take the largest share of it? Did migration from Nepal and India keep its pace in the north of the city? And did rents keep rising faster than incomes, leaving Hobart with the highest share of renters in rental stress of any capital? The first 2026 Census results arrive in June 2027.

Method

Figures are for Greater Hobart and the other seven Greater Capital City Statistical Areas from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Censuses, carried onto the ABS's 2026 boundaries with ABS correspondences so each city is compared on the same ground. The areas named within the city, such as Brighton and Hobart – North West, are the ABS's six Hobart SA3s. Figures for the eight capitals combined are calculated from summed counts. Birthplace shares are of residents who stated a birthplace, and rent as a share of income compares the median rent or monthly mortgage repayment with the median weekly household income. Housing stress figures count households one by one from the ABS's tables of household income by rent and by mortgage repayment. Population projections grow census counts with ABS estimates and Geoscience Australia projections, the 2026 rent and income figures are moved forward with the CPI rents series and the ABS wage price index, and the degree projection follows the recent trend. More on the method is on Data and sources.

Limitations

• Dollar figures are nominal, and comparisons of housing costs with incomes use each city's medians rather than individual households' circumstances.
• Housing stress uses the census's gross household income, which comes in bands and isn't equivalised for household size, so it isn't directly comparable with measures based on equivalised disposable income.
• Greater Hobart, Hobart Inner and Hobart – North West had boundary changes between editions, so their earlier figures are estimates.
• Figures for people born in England and Nepal start in 2016, so their change is measured over five years.
• The 2021 Census was taken with international borders closed, which lowered counts of international students and temporary residents in every city.
• The census shows where people live and who they are but doesn't record why they moved, and statements about what the figures mean for businesses are interpretation.
• Figures for 2026 and 2031 are projections, and the 2026 ones will be replaced by census counts as the ABS releases the 2026 results from June 2027.