Adelaide, 2011–2021: the slowest-growing capital, with its growth and new arrivals in the north

Adelaide grew more slowly than any other capital between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, and the growth it had was concentrated in the north, where Playford and Port Adelaide – East grew by a quarter and the share of residents using another language at home rose faster than anywhere else in the city. With Hobart it has the oldest population of the eight capitals, and in 2021 it had the lowest rents of any of them.

The slowest-growing capital

Greater Adelaide grew by 13% over the decade, from 1.23 million to 1.39 million residents, which is about 162,000 extra people. That was the slowest growth of the eight capitals, against 22–23% in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, 19% in Sydney, 16–17% in Hobart and Darwin, 27% in Canberra and 21% across the eight combined. Growth was 5.7% between 2011 and 2016 and 7.1% between 2016 and 2021, when only Darwin grew more slowly. On Censible's projections Adelaide reaches about 1.49 million residents in 2026 and 1.56 million in 2031, growth of about 12% over the decade to 2031, which is ahead only of Hobart's 7%.

Perth, which had about 500,000 more residents than Adelaide in 2011, added more than twice as many people over the decade, about 388,000 against 162,000, so the gap between the two cities widened to about 730,000. For anyone sizing markets across the capitals, Adelaide grew at a little over half the pace of Brisbane or Perth over the decade, so growth assumptions taken from those cities would overstate demand here.

Most of the growth went north

Adelaide – North, which runs from Tea Tree Gully and Salisbury out to Playford and Gawler, held 32% of the city's residents in 2011 and took 40% of its growth, about 64,000 people. Playford grew by 25% to about 100,000 residents and Port Adelaide – East by 26% to about 77,000, and only Adelaide City, which added about 5,400 residents to a small base, grew faster. The south, from Marion and Mitcham down to Onkaparinga, held 28% of residents and took 22% of the growth. Censible's projections give the north about a third of the city's growth between 2021 and 2031, with Playford alone adding about 26,000 residents, 15% of the city's projected growth.

The north is also where Adelaide's families are, with 22.9% of Playford's residents under 15 in 2021 against 17.1% across the city. Households in the north averaged 2.58 people against 2.44, and 84% of its homes were separate houses, so most of the city's added demand for schools, childcare and family-sized homes sits on its northern edge, a long way from the established eastern and southern suburbs.

An older city

In 2021, 18.6% of Adelaide's residents were aged 65 and over, up from 15.5% in 2011. Only Hobart, at 18.8%, had a higher share, and across the eight capitals combined the share was 15.4%. Holdfast Bay, on the coast around Glenelg, had 27.0% of its residents aged 65 and over, and Burnside 23.5%. The share under 15 fell from 17.7% to 17.1%, and lone-person households made up 27.7% of households, level with Hobart and the highest of the capitals.

On Censible's projections the share aged 65 and over reaches about 20.5% by 2031, while the eight capitals combined rise from 15.4% to 17.9%, so the gap narrows as the larger cities age. Adelaide's share in 2011 is about where the capitals combined stood in 2021, which makes it an early view of the demand for health care, aged care and services for older residents that the larger capitals are moving towards.

Who is moving in

The share of Adelaide's residents born overseas rose from 26.5% to 28.6% over the decade, level with Brisbane's 28.5% and well below Sydney's 40.5%, Perth's 37.7% and Melbourne's 37.3%. England remains the largest overseas birthplace, at 5.9% of residents who stated a birthplace in 2021, but the India-born share more than doubled over the decade, from 1.5% to 3.2%, and the Nepal-born share more than doubled between 2016 and 2021, from 0.2% to 0.5%.

The new arrivals settled mostly in the north. In Port Adelaide – East the India-born share rose from 5.0% to 11.8%, and the share of residents using a language other than English at home went from 32% to 44%. In Salisbury that share rose from 23% to 34%, and 2.6% of residents were born in Afghanistan. The south and the Hills barely changed, with 7.5% of Onkaparinga's residents and 5.5% of the Adelaide Hills' using another language at home, so figures for the northern suburbs from 2011, or from the south of the city, would misstate who lives in the north now.

The lowest rents of any capital

Adelaide's median weekly household income rose 41% over the decade to $1,559, level with Hobart's $1,556 as the lowest of the capitals and against $1,938 across the eight combined. The median rent of $316 a week was the lowest of any capital, below Hobart's $351 and Perth's $352, and the median mortgage repayment of $1,569 a month was the second lowest after Hobart's $1,512. Only 8.2% of Adelaide's homes are flats or apartments, against 31% of Sydney's, and 28.7% of households rent.

Measured against income, the median rent equals about 20% of the median household income and the median mortgage repayment about 23%, close to Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth and below Sydney's 23% and 27%. The median mortgage repayment barely moved over the decade, from $1,534 to $1,569 a month, so its share of income fell from about 32%, a fall seen across the capitals. Censible's figures for 2026, which move rents forward with the CPI rents series and incomes with the ABS wage price index, put the median rent at about $401 a week and the median household income at about $1,844, which would raise rent's share of income to about 22%, and both remain projections until the 2026 Census results arrive.

Work and qualifications

The share of adults holding a bachelor degree or higher rose from 18% in 2011 to 26%, the lowest of the eight capitals, just below Darwin (26.0%) and Perth (26.5%) and against 33% in Sydney and Melbourne and 43% in Canberra. In 2021, 24.0% of employed residents worked as professionals, the unemployment rate was 5.5% and the participation rate 61.7%. The 2021 Census was taken during lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne, so Adelaide's work figures compare more reliably with Brisbane's and Perth's than with those two cities'. Projected on the decade's trend, about 36% of adults in Adelaide would hold a degree by 2031.

What to watch in the 2026 Census

Four questions will decide whether this picture holds. Did Adelaide's growth pick up after 2021, or stay the slowest of the capitals? Did the north keep taking the largest share of it, as Censible's projections expect, and did migration from India keep its pace there? And did the rise in rents after 2021 change Adelaide's position as the cheapest capital to rent in? The first 2026 Census results arrive in June 2027.

Method

Figures are for Greater Adelaide and the other seven Greater Capital City Statistical Areas from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Censuses, carried onto the ABS's 2026 boundaries with ABS correspondences so each city is compared on the same ground. The north, south, west and central areas are the ABS's four Adelaide SA4s, and the areas named within them, such as Playford and Salisbury, are SA3s. Figures for the eight capitals combined are calculated from summed counts. Birthplace shares are of residents who stated a birthplace, and housing costs as a share of income compare the median rent or monthly mortgage repayment with the median weekly household income. Population projections grow census counts with ABS estimates and Geoscience Australia projections, the 2026 rent and income figures are moved forward with the CPI rents series and the ABS wage price index, and the degree projection follows the recent trend. More on the method is on Data and sources.

Limitations

• Dollar figures are nominal, and comparisons of housing costs with incomes use each city's medians rather than individual households' circumstances.
• Playford and Greater Adelaide as a whole had boundary changes between editions, so their earlier figures are estimates.
• Figures for people born in England, Afghanistan and Nepal start in 2016, so their change is measured over five years.
• The 2021 Census was taken with international borders closed, which lowered counts of international students and temporary residents in every city.
• The census shows where people live and who they are but doesn't record why they moved, and statements about what the figures mean for businesses are interpretation.
• Figures for 2026 and 2031 are projections, and the 2026 ones will be replaced by census counts as the ABS releases the 2026 results from June 2027.